Commuting significantly influences environmental quality and public health, thereby shaping urban sustainability. However, the effects of air pollution from vehicle emissions and associated mortality at both lower and upper commuting extremes remain unexplored.
This study utilizes nationwide commuting flow and geodemographic segmentation datasets to implement a disaggregated excess commuting framework across 918 U.S. metropolitan regions (MSAs).
Three reduced-complexity air quality health effect models are then employed to assess changes in vehicle emissions and related mortality for these extreme scenarios.
Results show that achieving the minimum commuting scenario could prevent approximately 1273 premature deaths nationwide, whereas the maximum commuting scenario could result in 3480 additional deaths linked to elevated air pollution.
These impacts vary considerably across urban forms and regions, with densely populated, polycentric MSAs accounting for over 70 % of total mortality changes. In some MSAs, health outcomes diverge from emission changes due to geographic factors that influence pollutant dispersion.
Overall, the findings highlight the need for targeted policies that promote more sustainable and health-conscious mobility systems.
Jing, Y., Hu, Y., Chen, C., & Cohan, D. S. (2026). Evaluating human mortality impacts from air pollution as US commuting reaches its extremes. Journal of Transport Geography, 131, 104541.
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