ZICK, MATYAS – Tropical cyclones in the North American Regional Reanalysis: The impact of satellite-derived precipitation over ocean
Stephanie E. Zick, Corene J. Matyas
Article first published online: 5 September 2015 Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
DOI: 10.1002/2015JD023722
ABSTRACT: Continued advancement in the realm of tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting requires a more accurate depiction of these storms at model initialization. This study examines the impact of precipitation assimilation on the representation of TCs in the North American Regional Reanalysis before and after the 2004 introduction of precipitation assimilation over ocean in the vicinity of TCs. The probability distribution function of rainfall rates indicates that light (heavy) precipitation was overforecast (underforecast) in the early time period. Since the precipitation assimilation is applied through an adjustment to the latent heating distribution, the data assimilation system in the later time period initializes a low-level moisture and heating profile that is more conducive to the initiation of deep convection and the generation of precipitation. Consequently, the deep convection and enhanced latent heat release lead to a more robust warm-core temperature perturbation and a better developed secondary circulation, which supplies the TC with larger quantities of moisture from the large-scale environment. Furthermore, the evolution of TC size, which was objectively estimated though the radius of outermost closed isobar, is significantly more skillful (p < 0.05) in post-2003 storms. Based on this study, precipitation assimilation leads to a better analysis of temperature, winds, and moisture in the vicinity of TCs, resulting in improved representations of the water budget and storm life cycle. Therefore, we conclude that efforts toward the development of precipitation assimilation techniques from radar and satellite data sets will be valuable toward the construction of improved TC forecasting tools with more authentic TC representation.
Read the full publication at Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres