Dr. Katy Serafin

Assistant Professor

Affiliate Faculty: Florida Climate Institute, UF Water Institute, Center for Coastal Solutions

Research Affiliate: Florida Sea Grant

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Curriculum Vitae

Focus Areas

Research Statement

I am a coastal scientist who researches extreme sea levels and coastal hazards to better understand how our coastlines are changing and the resultant consequences for people and places. I combine observational datasets with statistical and numerical models to understand the frequency, drivers, and impacts of coastal flooding and erosion events. Some of my interests include compound flooding hazards, extreme value analysis, coastal processes, human-natural coupled systems, flood risk management in a changing climate, and climate adaptation and resilience. The dynamic and broad nature of coastal science demands a highly interdisciplinary approach and I work with collaborators in different fields, institutions, and government agencies to enhance the resilience of communities to the impacts of coastal hazards.

Recent Courses

GEO 2230 Living with Rising Seas (Quest 2)
GEO 4285/6938: Water Risk and Extreme Events
GEO 3222 Sea Level Science

Recent Funded Projects

2026, Understanding ecosystem change and land management along Florida’s Big Bend Region. UF Gulf Scholars Program Place-Based Learning Grant (internal), PI: Serafin, Co-PI: Anna Braswell (UF)

2024-2027, The impact of local-scale variability on regional patterns of total water levels. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(opens in new tab). PI: Serafin, Co-PI: Greg Dusek (NOAA), Meg Palmsten (USGS).

2024-2026, How colliding forces change: The influence of climate and geography on flood transition zones. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers/U.S. Coastal Research Program(opens in new tab). PI: Serafin, Co-PI Thomas Wahl (UCF).

2020-2022, When forces collide: Developing a scalable framework for compound flood risk assessment. U.S. Coastal Research Program(opens in new tab). PI Thomas Wahl (UCF), Co-PI Serafin.

Recent Publications

Quadrado, G. P., & Serafin, K. A. (2026). Rising Impact Hours on Sandy Beaches Linked to Total Water Level Variability along US Coastlines. Coastal Engineering, 104963.

Jane, R., Santiago-Collazo, F. L., Serafin, K. A., Gori, A., Peña, F., & Wahl, T. (2025). Compound hazards during tropical cyclones. In Tropical Cyclones and Associated Impacts (pp. 95-119). Elsevier.

Quadrado, G. P., & Serafin, K. A. (2025). Total water level driving processes influence the potential for coastal change along United States coastlines. Cambridge Prisms: Coastal Futures, 3, e28.

MacKie, E. J., Millstein, J., & Serafin, K. A. (2024). 47 years of large Antarctic calving events: Insights from extreme value theory. Geophysical Research Letters, 51(23), e2024GL112235.

Amanambu, A. C., Mossa, J., Serafin, K. A., & Binford, M. (2024). Hydrological drought and floodplain disconnectivity: quantifying flow thresholds in a large coastal plain river. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 69(16), 2436-2454.

Serafin, K. A., Koseff, J. R., Ouyang, D., & Suckale, J. (2024). Moving from total risk to community-based risk trajectories increases transparency and equity in flood risk mitigation planning along urban rivers. Environmental Research Letters, 19(6).

Quadrado, G. P., & Serafin, K. A. (2024). The timing, magnitude, and relative composition of extreme Total water levels vary seasonally along the US Atlantic Coast. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 129(9), e2023JC020557.

Bowers, C., Serafin, K. A., & Baker, J. W. (2024). Uncovering drivers of atmospheric river flood damage using interpretable machine learning. Natural Hazards Review, 25(3), 04024022.

Bowers, C., Serafin, K. A., & Baker, J. W. (2024). Temporal compounding increases economic impacts of atmospheric rivers in California. Science Advances, 10(3), eadi7905.

Hsu, C. E., Serafin, K. A., Yu, X., Hegermiller, C. A., Warner, J. C., & Olabarrieta, M. (2023). Total water levels along the South Atlantic Bight during three along-shelf propagating tropical cyclones: relative contributions of storm surge and wave runup. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 23(12), 3895-3912.

Bowers, C., Serafin, K. A., Tseng, K. C., & Baker, J. W. (2023). Atmospheric river sequences as indicators of hydrologic hazard in historical reanalysis and GFDL SPEAR future climate projections. Earth’s Future, 11(12).

Huguenin, C. N., Serafin, K. A., & Waylen, P. R. (2023). A spatio-temporal analysis of the role of climatic drivers influencing extreme precipitation events in a Costa Rican basin. Weather and Climate Extremes, 42, 100602.

Jane, R. A., Malagón‐Santos, V., Rashid, M. M., Doebele, L., Wahl, T., Timmers, S. R., Serafin, K.A., Schmied, L., & Lindemer, C. (2022). A hybrid framework for rapidly locating transition zones: A comparison of event‐and response‐based return water levels in the Suwannee River FL. Water Resources Research, 58(11).

Juarez, B., Stockton, S. A., Serafin, K. A., & Valle‐Levinson, A. (2022). Compound flooding in a subtropical estuary caused by Hurricane Irma 2017. Geophysical Research Letters, 49(18).

Shope, J. B., Erikson, L. H., Barnard, P. L., Storlazzi, C. D., Serafin, K., Doran, K., … & Ruggiero, P. (2022). Characterizing storm-induced coastal change hazards along the United States West Coast. Scientific Data, 9(1), 224.

Bick, I. A., Santiago Tate, A. F., Serafin, K. A., Miltenberger, A., Anyansi, I., Evans, M., Ortolano, L., Ouyang, D., & Suckale, J. (2021). Rising seas, rising inequity? Communities at risk in the San Francisco Bay Area and implications for adaptation policy. Earth’s Future, 9(7).

Educational Background

  • Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Department of Geophysics, Stanford University, 2018–2019
  • Ph.D. in Ocean, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, 2018
  • M.S. in Ocean, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, 2013
  • B.A. in Environmental Studies, Connecticut College, 2008

Current Graduate Students

PhD

Current Postdoctoral Researchers:

Dr. Azadeh Razavi